EUR/USD: a timid attempt to correct 09 March 2021, 10:48

EUR/USD: a timid attempt to correct

09 March 2021, 10:48

Scenario
Timeframe	Intraday
Recommendation	BUY STOP
Entry Point	1.1905
Take Profit	1.2000
Stop Loss	1.1834
Key Levels	1.1700, 1.1744, 1.1800, 1.1834, 1.1900, 1.1951, 1.2000, 1.2022

Alternative scenario
Recommendation	SELL STOP
Entry Point	1.1830
Take Profit	1.1744, 1.1700
Stop Loss	1.1900
Key Levels	1.1700, 1.1744, 1.1800, 1.1834, 1.1900, 1.1951, 1.2000, 1.2022

Current trend

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing as part of the correction, recovering after a confident "bearish" rally, which led to the renewal of local minimums of November 24, 2020. The current growth of EUR is caused only by technical factors, while the fundamental picture on the market changes insignificantly.

Monday’s macroeconomic data from Germany put additional pressure on the instrument. Industrial production fell by 2.5% MoM for January after rising by 1.9% MoM for the previous month. Analysts had expected the index to rise by 0.2% MoM. Also, it declined by 3.9% YoY after rising by 1.0% YoY for the previous period. The markets were slightly supported only by the indicator of investor confidence for March from Sentix, which rose from –0.2 to 5 points against the forecast of +1.9 points.

On Tuesday, European investors are focusing on the renewed data on the dynamics of GDP in the euro area for the fourth quarter of 2020.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands steadily decline. The price range expands but not as fast as the “bearish” dynamics are developing now. MACD falls, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its lows, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating that the euro is strongly oversold in the super short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.1951, 1.2000, 1.2022.

Support levels: 1.1834, 1.1800, 1.1744, 1.1700.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the rebound from 1.1834 and the breakout of 1.1900 with the target at 1.2000. Stop loss – 1.1834. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after the breakdown of 1.1834 with the targets at 1.1744–1.1700. Stop loss – 1.1900.