EUR/USD: US yield rising supports the dollar
17 February 2021, 09:12
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL LIMIT |
| Entry Point | 1.2120 |
| Take Profit | 1.1954 |
| Stop Loss | 1.2174 |
| Key Levels | 1.1925, 1.1975, 1.2175, 1.2320 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.2175 |
| Take Profit | 1.2320 |
| Stop Loss | 1.2108 |
| Key Levels | 1.1925, 1.1975, 1.2175, 1.2320 |
Current trend
Yesterday, with the opening of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the EUR/USD pair sharply changed its direction of moving. US Treasury yields renewed annual highs, reaching the level of 1.292% on 10-year notes and 2.095% on 30-year notes. Meanwhile, the stock market corrected downward from local highs, closing below the opening level.
The EU Q4 2020 GDP decreased by 0.6% and by 5.0% YoY. Employment is recovering but slowly, rising only by 0.3% QoQ. The February index of economic sentiment from the ZEW rose to 69.6 points from the previous reading of 58.3.
In general, the greenback is expected to strengthen further before the adoption of the US $1.9 trillion financial stimulus bill. The correction of the euro towards a long-term uptrend is likely to continue but investors should pay attention to the ECB monetary policy statement at 10:00 (GMT+2) today.
Support and resistance
Initially, the instrument was in a strong resistance area of 1.2175–1.2160 but after the release of news on the EU and the US, the rate dropped to 1.2110.
The RSI indicator is in the neutral zone. The instrument is moving within a medium-term downtrend, the key resistance of which is the margin zone 1.2128–1.2112. While this area is held, it is worth opening short positions with a target in the area of the February low.
Resistance levels: 1.2175, 1.2320.
Support levels: 1.1975, 1.1925.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 1.2120 with the target at 1.1954 and stop loss 1.2174. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Long positions may be opened above 1.2170 with the target at 1.2320 and stop loss 1.2108.
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