USD/CHF: the dollar is falling
24 January 2019, 09:08
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.9955, 0.9965 |
| Take Profit | 1.0000 |
| Stop Loss | 0.9936, 0.9930 |
| Key Levels | 0.9871, 0.9900, 0.9919, 0.9936, 0.9962, 0.9980, 1.0000, 1.0027 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.9930 |
| Take Profit | 0.9900, 0.9871 |
| Stop Loss | 0.9962 |
| Key Levels | 0.9871, 0.9900, 0.9919, 0.9936, 0.9962, 0.9980, 1.0000, 1.0027 |
Current trend
Yesterday, USD fell against CHF, retreating from highs since December 6.
Investors are focused on the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the continuation of the Shutdown. Previously, the Financial Times announced the cancellation of the Chinese delegation visit to Washington because of the lack of progress. Later in an interview with CNBC, economic adviser Larry Kudlow refuted this data, stating that no intermediate meetings were planned, and Washington waited for Vice-Premier of the State Council of China Liu He on January 30–31. The parties may negotiate Chinese proposals on increasing the volume of imports of American products over the next six years by 1 trillion USD annually. As for the Shutdown, Kudlow admitted that it may slow the GDP growth (by about 0.1% per each week of idleness) but the economy will recover quickly after the government resumes its work.
Support and resistance
Bollinger bands grow steadily on the daily chart. The price range narrows but remains spacious enough for the current level of activity. MACD reverses into a downward plane, forming a new sell signal (the signal line is trying to locate above the histogram level). Stochastic decreases, retreating from its highs, indicating a strong overbought of USD in the super-short term.
Further development of the downtrend is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9962, 0.9980, 1.0000, 1.0027.
Support levels: 0.9936, 0.9919, 0.9900, 0.9871.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 0.9936 and the breakout of 0.9950–0.9962 with the target at 1.0000. Stop loss is 0.9936–0.9930. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 0.9936 with the target at 0.9900 or 0.9871. Stop loss is 0.9962. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Yesterday, USD fell against CHF, retreating from highs since December 6.
Investors are focused on the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the continuation of the Shutdown. Previously, the Financial Times announced the cancellation of the Chinese delegation visit to Washington because of the lack of progress. Later in an interview with CNBC, economic adviser Larry Kudlow refuted this data, stating that no intermediate meetings were planned, and Washington waited for Vice-Premier of the State Council of China Liu He on January 30–31. The parties may negotiate Chinese proposals on increasing the volume of imports of American products over the next six years by 1 trillion USD annually. As for the Shutdown, Kudlow admitted that it may slow the GDP growth (by about 0.1% per each week of idleness) but the economy will recover quickly after the government resumes its work.
Support and resistance
Bollinger bands grow steadily on the daily chart. The price range narrows but remains spacious enough for the current level of activity. MACD reverses into a downward plane, forming a new sell signal (the signal line is trying to locate above the histogram level). Stochastic decreases, retreating from its highs, indicating a strong overbought of USD in the super-short term.
Further development of the downtrend is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9962, 0.9980, 1.0000, 1.0027.
Support levels: 0.9936, 0.9919, 0.9900, 0.9871.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 0.9936 and the breakout of 0.9950–0.9962 with the target at 1.0000. Stop loss is 0.9936–0.9930. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 0.9936 with the target at 0.9900 or 0.9871. Stop loss is 0.9962. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
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