EUR/USD: general review
05 February 2019, 08:36
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.1410 |
| Take Profit | 1.1352 |
| Stop Loss | 1.1450 |
| Key Levels | 1.1352, 1.1413, 1.1452, 1.1476 |
Current trend
EUR continues falling against USD. The closest support level is at 1.1413 (Murrey [6/8]). If the pair is able to consolidate lower, then the next target will be at the level of 1.1352.
The euro is under pressure from strong Friday's employment data from the US. Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded the forecasts significantly (304K against 165K), but the Unemployment Rate rose to 4% from 3.9% a month earlier. However, as economists believe, the deterioration of this indicator can be directly related to the US government shutdown. The second negative factor for EUR is Consumer Prices Index, which rose by only 1.4%, making the weakest increase since last April. In such circumstances, one can hardly expect a change in the ECB monetary policy. It is also important to note that German Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 points last month, which may be a sign of an impending recession.
Softening of the rhetoric of the US Fed can be considered a positive factor for EUR. As stated by Jerome Powell, the committee’s main goal is to support economic growth, and since its pace may slow down in 2019, the interest rate is likely to be increased only once. However, the Fed will rely on economic indicators in the first place.
Today, the euro area's retail sales data will be published.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at 32 points and does not provide a clear signal for opening a transaction.
Resistance levels: 1.1452, 1.1476.
Support levels: 1.1413, 1.1352.
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1413 with take profit at 1.1352 and stop loss at 1.1450.
EUR continues falling against USD. The closest support level is at 1.1413 (Murrey [6/8]). If the pair is able to consolidate lower, then the next target will be at the level of 1.1352.
The euro is under pressure from strong Friday's employment data from the US. Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded the forecasts significantly (304K against 165K), but the Unemployment Rate rose to 4% from 3.9% a month earlier. However, as economists believe, the deterioration of this indicator can be directly related to the US government shutdown. The second negative factor for EUR is Consumer Prices Index, which rose by only 1.4%, making the weakest increase since last April. In such circumstances, one can hardly expect a change in the ECB monetary policy. It is also important to note that German Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 points last month, which may be a sign of an impending recession.
Softening of the rhetoric of the US Fed can be considered a positive factor for EUR. As stated by Jerome Powell, the committee’s main goal is to support economic growth, and since its pace may slow down in 2019, the interest rate is likely to be increased only once. However, the Fed will rely on economic indicators in the first place.
Today, the euro area's retail sales data will be published.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at 32 points and does not provide a clear signal for opening a transaction.
Resistance levels: 1.1452, 1.1476.
Support levels: 1.1413, 1.1352.
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1413 with take profit at 1.1352 and stop loss at 1.1450.
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